Is marriage on the way out?

The statistics are clear: with each passing decade fewer Americans are marrying, and fewer still are committed to the need for, and necessity of, the institution.  The reasons are clear but the long-term impact is not. 

Two statistics stand out:

·        Never married: by the year 2040, the Pew Research Center estimates that 25% of Americans will have never been married.

·        Life priorities: the Center posed this question to adult Americans of all ages: “Which statement best reflects your view? Society is better off if people make marriage and having children a priority, or society is just as well off if people have priorities other than marriage and children.” Of those ages 18-29, 67% said society is just as well off if people have priorities other than marriage and children. 

Why the retreat from marriage? 

Psychologists, economists and analysts cite a wealth of factors, among them:

·        The independence hypothesis: now that women have surpassed men in terms of college degrees and the wage gap is narrowing, their increased economic independence reduces their need for marriage;

·        Changes in technology, the law and cultural norms: the stigmas of cohabitation and children born out of wedlock are weakening, and technology has reduced the risks of premarital sex; and

·        Welfare programs: author Charles Murray, a political scientist for the American Enterprise Institute, argues that government welfare benefits and welfare policy has contributed, and possibly caused, the retreat from marriage.

The Big Shift

Without question, the traditional family model is fading – the fact is, this trend has been apparent for decades. In modern marriages (referred to, by some, as “hedonic” marriages), “there is little gender-based division of labor” and “consumption benefits are paramount,” according to professors Shelly Lundberg and Robert Pollak, in their article “The Evolving Role of Marriage: 1950-2010.” Lundberg and Pollak point out that where marriage once focused on production of household services, it now has shifted to investing in childrens’ human capital (clearly there are other driving forces – for older couples, for instance, marriage is both a symbol of commitment, and a desire to care for one another).  Said Lundberg and Pollak: “In our view, long-term commitment is valuable in early 21^st century America primarily because it promotes investment in children.”

At first glance, of course, this shift sounds desirable – after all, who isn’t in favor of supporting the next generation? The data is clear: those who can invest heavily in our children continue to marry, while those who cannot are less inclined to tie the knot (added Lundberg and Pollak: “For couples who lack the resources to invest intensively in their children . . . marriage may not be worth the cost of limited independence and potential mismatch”).

It all sounds reasonable enough. Except for one thing: this trend is creating a huge gap in “equality of opportunity.”  So more attention to equality of opportunity, not marriage per se, may be the golden ticket needed to lift up future generations.

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