And Now the Good News (Part 2) - Do Man's Best Days Lie Ahead?

And Now the Good News (part 2)

Part 1 addressed the compelling issue of world hunger, and the significant strides being made worldwide. Today, in Part 2, we explore an equally dynamic topic: Is humankind progressing?  Today’s column provides excerpts from a recent debate held among four of the world’s brightest minds.

Is humankind progressing?  Do man’s best days lie ahead?

A one-hour news feed from CNN might convince you otherwise.  It’s the downside of a 24/7 news cycle – we endure a thousand impressions of the latest crime, tragedy or killing – be it human or weather-related – and, honestly, it can’t help but cloud our perspective. 

Yet a quick look back, to nearly any time in history, assures us that every generation experiences its own unique set of worries and fears.  Why would this time in history be any different?

That was the issue explored this past fall at the Munk Debates*, a series of semi-annual debates vetting issues of substance (prior topics included: The West vs. Russia, Gender in the 21^st Century, North American Economy, Religion, Healthcare, Climate Change and Humanitarian Intervention). 

Four authors took the debate floor – on the pro side, Harvard Professor Steven Pinker and House of Lords member Matt Ridley built a compelling case that man’s best days do indeed lie ahead. Opposing them, journalist Malcolm Gladwell and public philosopher Alain de Botton made their claim that today’s threats (e.g., nuclear proliferation, climate change, et al) are indeed of a different order.

Clear from debate reviews was that Pinker – armed with facts and figures – carried the day. Pinker opens with two memorable lines: “Journalists report plane crashes, not planes that take off,” then adds: “As long as bad things haven’t vanished from the earth altogether, there will always be enough of them to fill the news.”  His compelling arguments rested on 10 elements that revealed, with little hyperbole, that humankind is indeed progressing.  Following are Pinker’s 10 points, drawn from the transcript of the Munk Debates:

1.      Life itself: “A century and a half ago, the human lifespan was 30 years. Today is it 70 and it shows no signs of leveling off.”

2.      Health: “Two of the greatest sources of misery in human existence [smallpox and cattle plague] have been eradicated forever. The same will soon be true for polio and guinea worm and we are currently decimating hookworm, malaria, filariasis, measles, rubella and yaws.”

3.      Prosperity: “Two centuries ago eighty-five percent of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty. Today, that’s down to ten percent and, according to the UN, by 2030, it could be zero.”

4.      Peace: “Globally, the annual death rate from wars has been in bumpy decline, from 300 per 100,000 during World War II, to 22 in the 1950s, 9 in the ‘70s, 5 in the ‘80s, 1.5 in the ‘90s and 0.2 in the ‘00s. Even the horrific civil war in Syria has only budged the numbers back up to where they were in 2000.”

5.      Safety: “Global rates of violent crime are falling in many places precipitously. The world’s leading criminologists have calculated that, within thirty years, we can cut the global rate of homicide in half.”

6.      Freedom: “More than sixty percent of the world’s population now lives in open societies, the highest percentage ever.”

7.      Knowledge: “In 1820, seventeen percent of people had a basic education. Today, eighty-two percent do and the percentage is rapidly heading to a hundred.”

8.      Human Rights: “Ongoing global campaigns have targeted child labor, capital punishment, human trafficking, violence against women, female genital mutilation, and the criminalization of homosexuality. Each has made measurable inroads and, if history is a guide, these barbaric customs will go the way of human sacrifice, cannibalism, infanticide, chattel slavery, heretic burning, torture executions, public hangings, debt bondage, dueling, harems, eunuchs, freak shows, foot binding, laughing at the insane, and the designated goon in hockey.”

9.      Gender Equity: “Global data show that woman are getting better educated, marrying later, earning more, and in more positions of power and influence.”

10.   Intelligence: “In every country, IQ has been rising by three points a decade.”

* The 90-minute debates began in 2008 and are a charitable initiative of the Aurea Foundation co-founders Peter and Melanie Munk.  Last month’s debate, on humankind, was held at the Roy Thomson Hall in Toronto, in front of an audience of 3,000. TV viewers also looked on.

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Resolutions: What’s the trick to keeping ’em?

Resolutions: What’s the trick to keeping ’em?

It’s been 22 years since I’ve made a New Year’s resolution. Well, that’s not entirely accurate. For more than two decades I’ve answered the question with a simple: “Why yes, I’ve resolved not to make any New Year’s resolutions!” Needless to say, I’ve been quite successful these last 22 years (ha ha).

For some reason, this year is different. I’ve penned more than half a dozen and now face the daunting challenge of achieving them. Where to turn? To the science, of course, in search of sage advice about how to avoid the mind traps that typically derail long-term commitments.

But before we share our 4-point tip sheet, let’s take a moment to touch on temporal landmarks, marketplace trends, and some unique resolutions that I wish I’d had on my list.

·       Temporal landmarks – Akin to the term physical landmarks, temporal landmarks represent specific days that allow us to create a “fresh start” (e.g., “I’ll start that on my birthday, or after the holiday, or next Monday, next week or next month”). Temporal landmarks, according to an article at www.theconversation.com, represent a “demarcation between a past self, who has perhaps failed to meet goals, and the present self, who has goal pursuit at their fingertips.”

·       By the numbers – an estimated 40% of us make New Year’s resolutions each year, and the areas targeted are much what you’d expect – nearly half fall into one of three standard categories: losing weight, improving our financial outlook and finding a new job. Success rates?  Not as bad as you might think. While it’s true that a third of us don’t last a month, an impressive 50% make it for six months.

·       Unique resolutions – In recent days, I’ve come across some provocative ones. For instance: “Learn something you never learned as a child” or “learn a decent party trick.” And then there’s “validate people in my life more” and “worry less.” I like that last one (and am open to any and all recommendations on how to accomplish it!). But my favorite resolution came from columnist Joel Klein, who earlier this month tweeted: “How about this for a new year's res: let's educate our kids before we graduate them, not vice-versa.” (Klein was reacting to a recent New York Times editorial titled “The Counterfeit High School Diploma”). 

OK, now on to the tips.

1.     Watch your language!  No surprise here, word choice matters. My personal tip is to avoid using the word “every” (as in: “try a new food each week,” or “go for a walk every day,” or “take a friend to lunch once a month”). Don’t get me wrong. I like the ideas, but chances are that the words “every” or “daily” will tend to bind us and lead to a spiral of negative thinking that slows our progress. So go ahead, if you’ve already made some resolutions that might be overly demanding, feel free to revise them. In a similar vein, experts encourage us to avoid being negative (for example, instead of setting a goal to lose 20 lbs., try to re-frame the goal in terms of improving your health).

2.     Harness the skills, and know why you’re doing it! Two elements worth noting: 1. It’s critical to know why you’re making the resolution (see Langer’s quote below); and 2. It takes skill to accomplish our goals. Said Dr. John Norcross, a professor of psychology at the University of Scranton, as quoted in an article at http://www.dailymail.co.uk: “'Largely people are unprepared for change . . . A fair number just clink the champagne glasses and confuse a resolution with a wish. . . . They certainly want to be inspired and motivated at the beginning, but when that gives out within the week, they need to be able to [rely on their] skills.”

As for knowing why, Harvard professor Dr. Ellen Langer was quoted as saying: “When you make a resolution to do something other than what deeply feels comfortable for you, it’s unlikely that you’re going to do it. If somebody is anxious and they eat to make themselves feel good, making a resolution not to over-consume is likely going to fail. Better for the person to recognize their relationship between stress and eating – and deal with the stress.” Added Langer: “If you don’t know what leads to the behavior in the first place, it’s only a matter of time before you’ll break [your resolution] in the second place.”

3.     Questions, not statement.  There’s a body of thought (though it’s hard to know how valid it is) that if you frame your resolutions as questions, you’ll have more luck fulfilling them. Here’s one example from professor Eric Spangenberg, University of California, Irvine: Instead of simply saying “I will exercise more,” try asking yourself “Will I exercise more?” and then answer (with enthusiasm, of course), “YES!” (I’ve tried it, quite interesting!)

4.     Find a friend. The stats are compelling – committing to a goal with a friend leads to far greater success. Explained an article published at theconversation.com: “One research study found signing up for a weight-loss program with friends and having that social support reinforced over time resulted in an increase from 75% to 95% in course completion. It even resulted in an increase from 24% to 66% in weight-loss maintenance, compared to signing up alone and receiving treatment not focused on social support.”

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